US Set to Spend More on Nutrition Programs Under CBO Estimate

The farm bill’s largest nutrition program is set to cost $605 billion over the next five years as it stands now, up 7% from last year’s projection, the Congressional Budget Office said, citing higher inflation and greater enrollment. The nonpartisan agency on Wednesday released its spending estimates for farm bill programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. They will set the floor — or ceiling — for negotiations on the next farm bill that lawmakers are starting to work on. The current farm bill expires after September. Nutrition programs made up about 80% of the 2018 farm bill, and SNAP is by far the largest source of food aid within that. The GOP’s right flank has already called for major cuts to the farm bill, especially related to the nutrition title, which Democrats and some Republican leaders oppose.

The 10-year projection for spending on SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, is $1.2 trillion. The end of Covid-era emergency allotments this year is set to decrease spending on SNAP and child nutrition programs such as school lunches by $21 billion, the CBO projected. Estimated outlays for SNAP were about $565 billion over five years in the CBO’s May 2022 projection. However, the CBO’s overall projections for nutrition programs are higher compared with last year’s estimates, largely due to food costs inflation. The agency estimated economic changes would push SNAP outlays up 3% and child nutrition up 7% over the next 10 years. SNAP enrollment is also higher than it was in May 2022, when the CBO last released its baseline, it said.

The CBO’s baseline for the farm bill also includes agricultural programs such as crop insurance and conservation. Five years ago, the CBO set a baseline of $428 billion overall for farm bill programs for 2019-2023. The 2018 farm bill was budget neutral, meaning it didn’t change spending but was able to pay for new costs with new cuts. Asked what she wanted to see ahead of the numbers, Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), the top lawmaker on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, joked “the highest numbers possible.” “Obviously we want a baseline that can write a good farm bill,” Stabenow added.

CBO estimate of US debt grows to $52 trillion by 2033 and Debt limit must be raised by as soon as July, CBO says. The clash between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over US fiscal policy is set to intensify after the Congressional Budget Office warned of a sharp deterioration in the federal budget. “The fiscal trajectory is unsustainable,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel told reporters Wednesday. “Our spending is outpacing our revenue,” he said after his agency released updated long-term projections. “At some point something has to give.” Among the CBO’s stark figures: the budget deficit for 2023 is now seen $426 billion worse than projected last May, at $1.41 trillion. Debt held by the public is seen climbing to $46 trillion by 2033, amounting to 118% of GDP — the highest in US history. The CBO report is the yardstick by which all federal legislation will be measured this year, including debt-ceiling related proposals and Republican plans to put the budget on a path to balancing in 10 years. The two parties have already traded barbs over who’s to blame for the rising debt burden, and how to address it.