Middle East Conflict Disruption Updates & Situation Report – March 5, 2026

March 5, 2026 | 9:00 AM EST

Food Systems

Escalating conflict in the Middle East and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to affect global food supply chains, particularly those reliant on temperature-controlled logistics. The crisis will affect fresh produce, meat, dairy, seafood and chilled prepared foods through several interconnected channels:

1. Energy market disruption raising refrigeration and transport costs.
2. Shipping and insurance constraints affecting refrigerated container capacity.
3. Fertilizer supply disruptions affecting livestock feed and horticulture.
4. Transit delays, which increase spoilage risk for perishable foods.

The extent of these impacts will be determined by how long the disruption lasts.

Shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has already reduced maritime traffic and increased risk premiums for carriers. The corridor is central not only for energy but also for fertilizer and agricultural inputs that underpin global food production.

In the near term, the crisis is most likely to manifest as higher costs and logistics disruption for temperature-controlled foods, particularly those transported by refrigerated container or air freight.

The greatest risk to cold chain food availability will occur if disruptions last long enough to affect fertilizer supply, livestock feed production, and planting cycles… reducing meat, dairy, and fresh produce output in future harvests.

Timeline of Impacts

Immediate impacts (0–2 weeks)

The first impacts appear in logistics and energy markets.

• Shipping disruptions and war-risk insurance costs increase freight rates and reroute vessels.
• Refrigerated container transport becomes more expensive.
• Energy price spikes increase the cost of refrigeration, cold storage and food processing.

For cold chain foods, even short delays can significantly reduce shelf life.

Air and sea freight routes for fresh produce have already been disrupted, with some shipping lines suspending bookings and rerouting vessels away from the region.

Short-term impacts (2–8 weeks)

As new shipments move under disrupted conditions:

• Importers face higher costs for chilled meat, seafood, dairy and fresh produce.
• Delays increase spoilage risk and reduce retail shelf life.
• Higher freight costs raise prices for premium perishable imports.

For example, meat exports have already been affected by logistics disruption, with refrigerated containers stranded at sea as trade routes are interrupted.

Medium-term impacts (2–4 months)

If disruption persists:

• Fertilizer availability declines and prices rise.
• Livestock feed costs increase.
• Horticultural production may fall if fertilizer application declines.

This matters for cold chain foods because livestock, dairy and horticulture are heavily dependent on fertilizer-intensive feed and crop systems.

The Middle East exports a significant share of global fertilizer feedstocks, and supply disruptions are already pushing prices higher ahead of planting seasons.

Harvest-cycle impacts (4–9 months)

Reduced fertilizer use begins to affect production:

• Lower yields for vegetables and fruit.
• Higher feed costs for livestock production.
• Higher prices for meat, dairy and eggs.

Industry analysts warn that fertilizer disruptions could trigger broader food price increases over the coming months.

Longer-term impacts (9–12+ months)

If the crisis continues through multiple planting cycles:

• Global supply of fresh produce and animal protein may tighten.
• Refrigerated shipping capacity may remain constrained due to prolonged route disruptions.
• Import-dependent regions could see reduced availability of high-value perishable foods.

 

Regional Exposure in Cold Chain Systems

Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Highly dependent on imported perishable foods. Short-term impacts include:

• Higher costs for chilled meat and dairy imports
• Shipping delays affecting fresh produce availability

Governments may prioritise staple imports over perishable foods if logistics disruption persists.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cold chain infrastructure is limited, increasing vulnerability.

• Frozen poultry, fish and dairy imports may become more expensive
• Fertilizer shortages could affect horticulture and feed production

Urban consumers relying on refrigerated food imports are particularly exposed.

Europe & UK

Europe has robust cold chain infrastructure but faces cost pressures.

• Higher energy prices increase cold storage costs
• Higher feed prices affect meat and dairy production

Experts warn the conflict could represent another stress test for European food systems following earlier supply shocks.

South Asia

Energy price exposure is significant.

• Refrigeration and transport costs increase
• Fertilizer supply disruption threatens livestock feed production

Countries such as India depend heavily on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region.

East Asia and Pacific

Major seafood and fresh produce exporters rely heavily on refrigerated shipping.

• Shipping disruptions raise costs for seafood exports
• Import-dependent economies face higher food prices

Energy import dependence also exposes the region to rising refrigeration and logistics costs.

Americas

Large exporters of cold chain foods such as meat, dairy and fruit.

• Exporters face higher refrigerated shipping costs
• Fertilizer price volatility affects feed and horticultural crops

Exporters may benefit from higher prices but face higher input and logistics costs.

 

 

For additional information, contact Shane Brennan, Senior Vice President, Global Policy, Projects & Partnerships: sbrennan@gcca.org