USDA Releases Updated Agricultural Trade Outlook

On August 27^th, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) released its latest Agricultural Trade Outlook. The report shows that the current trade imbalance in 2024 is expected to continue in 2025. Agricultural exports in 2025 are forecast to reach $169.5 Billion, while imports are forecast at $212.0 Billion. This represents a growing agricultural trade deficit reaching over $40 billion next year. The decline in exports is primarily driven by lower unit values of soybeans, corn, and cotton, as well as lower volumes of beef. Highlighted data from the report includes:

• Beef exports are forecast at $8.4 billion, down $1.0 billion from FY 2024, as lower U.S. production reduces exportable supplies.
• Overall livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are projected at $38.6 billion, down $100 million from FY 2024, as the decline in beef exports is mostly offset by higher exports of pork, poultry, variety meats, and dairy products.
• Horticultural exports are projected to rise by $1.2 billion to a record $41.5 billion due to higher exports across all categories.
• Agricultural exports to Mexico are forecast at $29.2 billion, down $100 million from FY 2024.
• Mexico and Canada are projected to remain the first and second largest U.S. agricultural markets, respectively.

Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $24.0 billion, $3.0 billion lower than the revised FY 2024 estimate, driven by reduced import demand, strong competition, and lower unit values of key U.S. exports.