Significant and dynamic change is occurring across the global trade landscape. The Global Cold Chain Alliance (GCCA) is tracking developments and announcements across multiple regions and markets. The information below is organized by country, with key data and links to official sources. Information will be updated regularly.
Questions? Please contact:
Lowell Randel, Senior Vice President, Government & Legal Affairs at lrandel@gcca.org
Shane Brennan, Senior Vice President, Strategy, Partnerships and Policy at sbrennan@gcca.org
May 11, 2025 Update: US and China Announcement on Tariffs
On May 11th, representatives from the US and China announced that negotiators had reached an agreement to reduce current tariff rates for a 90-day period. Under the agreement, the United States will reinstate the country-specific tariff rate of 20% on China imposed on 1st February and the 10% 'baseline reciprocal tariff' that applies to all countries. China will remove tariffs imposed in response to US actions, reducing tariffs on US imported goods to 10%.
The United States tariff rate changes apply to goods entered for consumption or withdrawn from the warehouse for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025. A significant increase in US China shipping volumes is expected as a result of this change, a reversal of recent declines in shipping volumes.
The White House and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce have issued a joint statement with more details on the agreement and the full Executive Order.
April 30, 2025 Update:
The President has signed Executive Orders that amend previous actions to mitigate the impact of 'tariff stacking' where specific sectoral tariffs end up having a cumulative effect on especially finished products. The primary focus of the initiative is preventing unintended effects on the US automotive sector. It is, however, an indication of further action to reduce the consumer impact of tariffs on US consumers. Read Here
There is speculation of movement towards further trade accommodations and agreements by the White House before the July 9th deadline for 'the 90-day pause', but as yet, no specific actions have been announced.
April 17, 2025 Update:
The US Trade Representative released details of new US port fees aimed at Chinese-owned and Chinese-built ships (see here). The fees will begin in October 2025, aiming to challenge China’s dominance in shipbuilding and shipping and bolster the US maritime industry.
Under the finalised proposals, Chinese ship owners and operators face charges starting at $120 per container when calling at US ports. The fees increase annually to reach $250 per container by 2028. For container ships, the fee is based on the number of containers carried rather than the ship’s tonnage.
Non-Chinese carriers operating Chinese-built ships will also be subject to container-based fees, at an initial $120 per container, rising to $153 in 2026 and up to $250 by 2028, aligning with the fee structure for Chinese carriers over time. This convergence means that while initial impacts differ, the long-term cost burden will become comparable. Each affected vessel will be charged once per US port call, capped at a maximum of five charges per year. Ships arriving empty to collect bulk exports such as coal or grain are exempt.
The financial burden remains significant despite being less severe than the $1M+ per port call initially proposed. Analysts estimate large Chinese container ships could face fees of approximately $300 to $600 per container, depending on ship size and cargo load. Initially, the financial pressure on Chinese carriers will be three times higher for non-Chinese carriers.
Carriers are expected to respond with increased charges and some reshuffling of service networks that will have some impact on cold chain operations.
April 15, 2025 Update:
The United States Commerce Department has announced its intention to reinstate anti-dumping measures enacted and then suspended in 2019. These measures will impose a 21% tariff on tomatoes imported into the United States by Mexico, taking effect on July 14, 2025.
April 9, 2025 Update:
Announcements made at 1:25 PM on April 9th by the US administration include a '90-day pause' in tariffs announced on April 2nd. The announcement is that all countries listed in the reciprocal tariff announcements made on April 2nd will now face a 'minimum 10% tariff'.
The US administration has also changed its tariff policy on goods imported to the US from China, raising the tariff rate to 125%.
On April 2nd, the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, announced a broad reaching set of new tariffs.
As part of the announcement, Trump declared a national emergency and invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose responsive tariffs to address the absence of reciprocity in US bilateral trade relationships. Trump cited “large and persistent annual US goods trade deficits that have led to the hollowing out of our manufacturing base; resulted in a lack of incentive to increase advanced domestic manufacturing capacity; undermined critical supply chains; and rendered our defense-industrial base dependent on foreign adversaries.”
The new tariffs set a baseline level of 10% for all countries and higher levels of tariffs for other markets, particularly those where the US has a large trade deficit. The 10% baseline tariffs went into effect on April 5th, while the reciprocal tariffs hitting targeted countries went into effect on April 9th. Some notable examples include China – 54%, Vietnam – 46%, India – 26%, Japan – 24%, European Union – 20%. The new tariffs are in addition to the tariffs already announced related to Canada and Mexico, as well as those being imposed on steel and aluminum.
Canada, Mexico and EU are the three largest exporters of food to the US – together accounting for 60% of the volume imported. The April 2nd announcements will not affect previous policy decisions to exempt products imported under the USMCA trade agreement, thereby exempting most foods imported from Mexico and Canada for now.
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- U.S. Department of Commerce Announces Intent to Withdraw From 2019 Suspension Agreement on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico
- Executive Order: Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits
- Federal Register Notice of Executive Order
- Federal Register Notice of Executive Order
- Annex 1 – List of Reciprocal Tariffs by Country
- Annex 2 – Harmonized Tariff Schedule
- CBP Guidance: 10% Reciprocal Tariffs effective April 5, 2025
- Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security
- 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on FOREIGN TRADE BARRIERS of the President of the United States on the Trade Agreements Program
- US / China Agreement - White House Fact Sheet - May 11th
The United States imposed the minimum 10% tariff rate on Brazilian imports on April 2nd.
The Brazilian Congress has passed legislation granting the President the authority to respond in kind to any tariff measures imposed on Brazilian exporters. However, at this stage, there is no indication whether President Lula will exercise these powers.
It is important to note that Brazil, like many economies, is well-positioned to take advantage of opportunities for import substitution from markets that reciprocate against high tariff barriers in the US, especially China. This is especially the case for Brazilian Beef exports, which may see a further increase despite of a longstanding 12% tariff for frozen cuts.
Additionally, in the past month, President Lula announced a "breakthrough" trade arrangement with Vietnam, which includes a new permission to sell up to 300,000 tons of beef annually in the Vietnamese market as part of a wider trade engagement mission in East Asia.
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April 15, 2025 Update:
Canada announces new support for Canadian businesses affected by U.S. tariffs
The tariff disputes between the United States and Canada started in early March, and a series of countermeasures were announced due to interventions before April 2nd.
An initial wave of 25% tariffs on US food products, including poultry, dairy, tomatoes, citrus, chocolate, pasta, bread, and baked goods, took effect on March 4th. These tariffs were not altered even in response to the US administration's policy change to exempt all goods covered by the USMCA agreement.
The US is the source of c.80% of Canadian poultry imports, and in 2023 Canada imported c.$813m by value.
Data
- A report on overall food imports and exports from Canada can be found here
- A detailed breakdown of food imported by Canadians from the United States by States is available here
Sources
May 11, 2025 Update: US and China Announcement on Tariffs
On May 11th, representatives from the US and China announced that negotiators had reached an agreement to reduce current tariff rates for a 90-day period. Under the agreement, the United States will reinstate the country-specific tariff rate of 20% on China imposed on 1st February and the 10% 'baseline reciprocal tariff' that applies to all countries. China will remove tariffs imposed in response to US actions, reducing tariffs on US imported goods to 10%.
The United States tariff rate changes apply to goods entered for consumption or withdrawn from the warehouse for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025. A significant increase in US China shipping volumes is expected as a result of this change, a reversal of recent declines in shipping volumes.
The White House and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce have issued a joint statement with more details on the agreement and the full Executive Order.
April 11, 2025 Update:
On Friday April 11, China raised tariffs on US imports to 125%, but signaled it would apply no further measures in the future.
With less than 10% of the worlds arable land, China produces one fourth of the worlds grain and feeds one fifth of the world’s population. China ranks first globally in producing cereals, vegetables, meat, poultry, eggs and fishery products; yet it is a net importer of agricultural products and has been since 2004.
China’s self-sufficiency ratio has declined from 93.6% to 65.8%. Significant focus continues to be placed in increasing the productivity of Chinese agriculture, and in diversifying the Chinese access to imported food.
Brazil overtook the US as the largest agrifood exporter to China following the trade wars of the first Trump administration, and growth in trade with the ‘BRIC’ countries continues.
China has responded in stages to a series of escalating tariff actions taken by the United States since February.
On March 10th, a tariff increase of 15% on some US agricultural products including chicken, corn, cotton and wheat took effect
On April 2nd the Chinese government announced a planned additional tariff of 34% on all imports from the US, and on April 9th this was increased to 84% in response to the further escalation by the United States.
China / Canada – On March 20th, China imposed a 100% tariff on imports of Canadian rapeseed oil, oil, cakes and peas and a 25% tariff on aquatic products and pork. This was cited as a response top previous action by Canadian government to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles imported to Canada.
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Like Brazil, Ecuador is a country that is faced with a new ‘minimum’ tariff of 10% on exports to the United States and is well-positioned to take advantage of volatility and change in global markets, including the market for shrimp.
In 2024 total exports of shrimp totalled 1.2bn MT, with China being the main destination market at 656,000 MT.
Days before the US announcement of new tariffs, the Ecuadorian Government announced a temporary reduction in import tariffs on US shrimp imports, reducing them from 30% to 0%.
Sources
The EU announced a series of countermeasures to the US tariff announcement of April 2nd. These were outlined to take effect in three stages—the goods listed included rice, orange juice, and maize, followed by a range of cold chain products such as poultry, beef, and fruit. They would be subject to a 25% tariff. However, it has subsequently announced that these will be paused for the same 90-day period as the delay announced by the Trump administration on April 9th.
The EU benefits from a trade deficit with the US, being a significant net exporter of high value agricultural goods like wine, premium cheese and salmon. The US is the second largest trade partner for the EU 13% (after the UK).
Generally, the EU imports less food, having a high level of self-sufficiency in all goods other than those it does not grow (for example, coffee). It’s main agricultural import from the US is soybeans, especially used in animal feed. However, soy imports from Brazil are also significant and growing.
This trade imbalance is impacted by regulatory divergences that see Europe not allowing a number of US-produced goods, like beef and poultry, to be sold on EU markets because of welfare and processing concerns.
Data
- Rabobank Analysis – Trumps Tariffs, impact on EU Food and Agriculture.
Sources
India has not yet taken action to counter the 26% tariff imposed on all Indian exports to the United States. Trade talks and recent changes to Indian import tariffs on certain US goods have led to speculation that they are well positioned to secure an early trade deal.
India is a significant agricultural exporter, with a notably large trade in frozen seafood totalling over 1.36million MT. India was the source of over $1.2bn of shrimp imported to the USA, but India also supplies in large volumes to China and the European Union.
Data
The United States has imposed a 25% tariff on all products not covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Most food exported from Mexico to the US is covered by the 0% tariff agreements contained in the USMCA.
Mexico has not announced any counter measures or other changes to trade policy at the stage.
Mexico is a major exporter of fruits and vegetables to the US – the dramatic growth in ‘protected’ greenhouse and polytunnel growing has led to a large-scale, year-round supply of key fruits and vegetables targeted for export and the US in particular.
Data
On April 2nd, the United States announced it would impose a blanket 31% tariff on imports from South Africa.
Other African countries accounted for 42% of all agricultural products exported by South Africa during quarter one (1) of 2024, followed by EU-28 (30%), Asia & Middle East (19%), America (6%), and Oceania (1%). The US accounts explicitly for c.4% of South African agriculture exports with main export categories citrus, grapes, avocados, berries, apples and pears, as well as wine and fruit juices.
US food exports to South Africa (totalling c $239m in 2024) have experienced a significant decline since 2022, caused mainly by economic difficulties in country resulting from power shortages and other factors.
The imposition of tariffs on countries across the African continent marks a significant departure from the intent and policy approach set out in the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act enacted in the 1990s, giving African countries preferential low tariff access to the US market. Although this act was not directly referenced in the April 2nd announcement, discussions have been ongoing regarding the possibility of renewing the legislation and initiative, which officially ends in September of 2025.
While the possibility of bilateral and regional deals remains, the shift in US policy will likely accelerate the already significant diversification of trade alliances and market strategies of South Africa and its neighboring economies.
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May 12th Update
UNITED KINGDOM / UNITED STATES TRADE DEAL
On 8th May, the UK and the United States announced a series of changes to bilateral trade relations. Despite the pronouncement of the US President that this was ‘a comprehensive agreement’, the deal is targeted and limited.
The tradeable goods of most value and volume included in the deal are bioethanol exports for the US and a reduction in the tariffs on steel and cars for the UK into the US. The deal does not include the removal of the ‘reciprocal’ 10% baseline tariff on goods entering the United States for UK exporters.
Beef Tariffs
The deal does cover a small number of agri-food product categories, including some reliant on a temperature-controlled supply chain.
The most notable is the UK agreeing to a new tariff quota of up to 13,000 metric tons of US beef at 0% tariff, a significant improvement from the previous quota of 1000 metric tons at 20% tariff. In return, the United States will allocate the equivalent of 13,000 tons of quota-free access to the United Kingdom (from within its existing quota allocated to ‘other countries’).
13,000 tons is not a large quantity. It accounts for less than 1% of UK consumption and compares to nearly 241,000 metric tons exported to the UK by Ireland in 2024. Potential to export up to 13,000 metric tons from the UK, is a statistical irrelevance to US consumption, and for comparison the US allocates Australia a tariff rate quota in excess of 378,000.
Food Regulations
Whilst reciprocal beef concessions are highlighted there is a big question over whether there is an intent to go further on other tariff lines and in particular on the different regulatory standards that prohibit many US food products from being sold in the UK.
Even though the UK is no longer a part of the European Union, it has not made substantial changes to its food regulations and continues to prohibit imports made to certain production practices common in the United States. The most notable of these is the use of hormones in US beef production and the chlorinated washing of chicken.
The White House communication about the deal emphasizes the longstanding dissatisfaction with these discriminatory rules – calling for further reductions in tariffs and an end to ‘non-science-based standards’. However, UK Ministers have emphasized numerous times in the days since the announcement that the deal includes no concessions or changes to the UK’s food regulations. These regulations remain a major barrier to the United Kingdom being a more substantial destination for US agrifood, especially proteins.
As the UK continues to seek improvements in its post-Brexit trade relations with the European Union, improving the flow of food goods between the two markets is a core priority, with hopes for a regulatory equivalence arrangement or so called ‘veterinary deal’ that would align standards on proteins. The EU is highly suspicious of the implications of allowing greater access for UK food, for fear of the potential that the UK will diverge from EU production standards, or allows greater import access for markets like the United States, which would create a potential ‘backdoor’ to its market.
The joint US/UK communication does state that ‘both countries positively support future discussion to strengthen bilateral trade’ and ‘commit to working together to improve market access for agricultural products, to highlight concerns, and to increase [] cooperation.’ However it is convoluted and lacking in clarity on details.
Given these dynamics, is unclear as to how much further scope there is for movement on the non-tariff barriers that dominate the friction between the UK and US agrifood markets.
What's Next?
The US administration has made clear its intention and ambition to achieve a series of other deals of this kind, and it is not clear how much time or focus there will be to turn these initial limited concessions into a full- fledged trade agreement in coming weeks.
The UK is in discussions with the EU and is likely to prioritise outcomes on that before seeking to go further with the US. Wat the UK believes in can achieve with the EU will set some of the parameters for how much the UK will entertain bigger concessions to the US on its ‘non-science-based standards.’ Similarly for the US, it will likely be considering the potential and value of a ‘deal’ with the European Union that may or may not cover agri-food tariffs and rules.
May 5th Update
United Kingdom / India Trade Agreement
The UK and India have announced the intent to finalise a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. The agreement includes significant reductions in tariffs for both countries’ exporters.
Agrifood and cold chain transported agri-food, in particular, are not traded in significant quantities between the two countries. UK beef exporters for example, are not permitted to sell their beef into India, even though the majority Hindu company has a potential 220 million beef consumers among the Christian and Muslim minority. The main protein opportunity for UK exporters is sheep meat, a popular and universally consumed protein and the trade deal dramatically reduces tariffs on this.
It is also notable that pork meat has been excluded from the tariff reductions for goods imported from India into the UK, this is a response to concerns among UK Producers about unfair competition.
See details here
10th April Update
The United Kingdom (UK) is subject to the 'minimum' 10% tariff imposition for goods exported to the United States, aside from specific tariffs on automotive and steel exports. A reflection of relative parity in the trade balance between the UK and the US.
Having recently exited the European Union trading bloc, the UK is uniquely positioned compared to most medium-sized Western European countries. Its agricultural exports are valued at £24 bn.
Given its proximity and high regulatory alignment, EU member states are the principal destination of UK food exports. Still, the US is a significant market for UK goods, especially high-end specialist products like scotch whisky.
The UK is a significant importer of foods from around the world, again with imports from European neighbors dominating the mix.
There is speculation that the UK could be one of the countries with which the US administration reaches an early ‘deal’ on a revised tariff approach. Historically the major impediment to such an agreement has been the UK’s choice to align with the EU regulations on food safety and product standards. These are prohibitive to major US agriculture exports like poultry and beef. The UK is now free to change its regulations and import standards as part of a trade deal with the US, but any choices on this would likely impact its ongoing goal to reduce post-Brexit trade frictions with the EU.
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Previous GCCA Tariff Briefings
- March 11, 2025: Update on Tariff Developments
- March 5, 2025: New US Tariffs on Canada, China, Mexico
- February 10, 2025: Webinar Recording - Tariff Implications for the Cold Chain
- December 1, 2024: Trump Signals Tariff Plans