Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election: Implications for the Cold Chain

In three days, Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a runoff after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro received approximately 47% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, followed by incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with approximately 45%. Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking a fourth presidential term, having served from 2003 to 2010 and again since 2023. His left-of-center platform emphasizes social inclusion, public investment, and government-led development. Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), advocates a right-wing agenda focused on private investment, lower taxes, regulatory simplification, and public security. A senator since 2019 and previously a Rio de Janeiro state legislator, he is making his first presidential bid and is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

For temperature-controlled warehousing and transportation companies, the two platforms offer different approaches to infrastructure, energy and the business environment. The potential impacts below are analytical interpretations of their public platforms, rather than specific campaign commitments to the cold chain.

A Lula victory

Lula’s platform prioritizes infrastructure through the Novo PAC, productive credit, industrial development and investment in renewable energy and electricity transmission. These policies could support logistics improvements and opportunities to modernize cold storage facilities. Benefits would depend on project delivery, financing eligibility and whether energy investments translate into reliable, competitively priced electricity.

A Flávio Bolsonaro victory

Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform emphasizes private infrastructure investment, regulatory simplification and reductions in electricity and fuel taxes and charges. These measures could help reduce operating costs and encourage investment in refrigerated logistics. However, their effects would depend on legislative approval, financing and implementation, while proposed tax and regulatory changes would require careful transition planning.

Priorities under either outcome

Regardless of the winner, cold chain investment will depend on affordable and reliable electricity, efficient transport infrastructure, access to financing and regulatory predictability. Export growth will also require effective sanitary certification, inspection and port procedures to translate into demand for refrigerated warehousing and transportation.

For GCCA, engagement with the next administration should prioritize consistent sanitary requirements, recognition of third-party cold storage operators within export supply chains and coordinated implementation of regulatory changes. Both outcomes could create opportunities; execution will determine the benefits for the sector. GCCA can advance a practical, nonpartisan agenda connecting cold chain investment with food safety, reduced food loss and Brazil’s competitiveness.

For more information, contact GCCA Brazil Director Isabela Parazza at iperazza@gcca.org