Middle East Conflict Disruption Updates & Situation Report – May 21, 2026

May 21, 2026 | 1:45 PM  EST

Freight Rate & Carrier Update: Company-by-Company Overview

Three months into the conflict, the freight rate picture has become more differentiated than the initial shock phase suggested. It is clear that the impact on shipping costs varies depending on the route, cargo type, or region — a more complex, uneven picture than first appeared.  

The broad pattern:  

• Rates on routes directly touching the Gulf region remain severely elevated and operationally constrained;
• Trans-pacific rates have risen moderately and are holding;  
• Asia–Europe rates spiked sharply in March and April before partially retreating as Cape of Good Hope rerouting absorbed the shock; and  
• Transatlantic rates spiked sharply in April as emergency fuel surcharges fed through. Air freight rates remain globally elevated, running approximately 25–30% above pre-war levels across most major lanes. 

For cold chain operators, the reefer premium is a distinct and consistent feature across every carrier that has maintained Gulf bookings.: For example, CMA CGM’s Emergency Conflict Surcharge for reefer equipment (4,000/unit) sits 1,000 above the equivalent dry container charge, a pattern replicated in part by other carriers. The differential reflects the power and handling intensity of reefer equipment — and it is compounding on top of already elevated base rates. 

Carrier financial results for Q1 2026 are now available for Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, providing a clearer picture of how these cost pressures are translating into earnings and, critically, what each carrier’s commercial incentives are for the remainder of the year. 

Market Level Rate Benchmarks 

Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), week of May 12, 2026: 

• Asia – US West Coast: ~2,100–2,500/FEU, approximately 1,000/FEU (+50–60%) above pre-war levels; gains have been gradual but are holding during a seasonally soft demand period.
• Asia – US East Coast: ~3,069–3,678/FEU, also around 700–1,000/FEU above pre-war levels.
• Asia – North Europe: approximately back to pre-war levels (~2,600–2,700/FEU), having spiked to ~3,000+ in March then retreated.
• Asia – Mediterranean: just below pre-war levels; similarly difficult for carriers to sustain increases.
• Transatlantic (Europe – North America): ~2,100/FEU, up roughly 50% from pre-war levels of ~1,400/FEU following the April feed-through of emergency fuel surcharges; further increases of 1,000–2,000/FEU have been announced for May by some carriers.

Drewry World Container Index (WCI), week of May 14, 2026: 

• Global composite surged 12% week-on-week to 2,553/40ft container. 
• Shanghai – New York: 4,252/40ft (+14% week-on-week). 
• Shanghai – Los Angeles: 3,357/40ft (+10% week-on-week). 
• The WCI is signalling continued upward pressure on transpacific routes driven by Emergency Fuel Surcharges and Peak Season Surcharges now taking effect. 

Air Freight (Freightos Air Index): 

• Global benchmark approximately 25–30% above pre-war levels, down from a 40%+ peak in late April. 
• South Asia – Europe: ~4.60–4.66/kg, roughly double pre-war levels. 
• Southeast Asia – Europe: ~5.30–5.74/kg, 60%+ above pre-war levels and at or near new highs. 
• China – North America: ~5.47–5.48/kg, back to approximately pre-war levels after peaking above 7.50/kg in late March. 
• Jet fuel prices have levelled off after April highs but remain structurally elevated. 

Carrier-by-Carrier Update

Carrier	Operational status	Surcharges	Outlook
Maersk	All Strait of Hormuz transits suspended; Red Sea return halted from 28 February; six vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf; temporary UAE warehouse closures in early March.	Emergency freight increase across key Gulf markets; India/Pakistan–Europe war-risk surcharges; Emergency Fuel Surcharge from April; ongoing BAF adjustments.	Strong incentive to sustain surcharges, avoid discounting, and manage capacity tightly through the rest of 2026.
MSC	Declared End of Voyage for Arabian Gulf cargo; bookings to Middle East destinations remain suspended or heavily restricted.	800/container deviation surcharge; 1,000/container India/Pakistan–Europe surcharge; War Risk Surcharge of 1,200/TEU and above 3,000/40ft on Gulf-adjacent routes.	Risk is shifted to cargo owners, creating particular exposure for perishable shipments.
CMA CGM	Maintained limited Gulf access through multimodal routing via Sohar; dry, frozen and in-gauge cargo accepted, making it a key reefer option.	Emergency Conflict Surcharge: 2,000/20ft dry, 3,000/40ft dry, 4,000/reefer; Emergency Fuel Surcharge from April; war-risk surcharge across Gulf and adjacent markets.	Most operationally important current pathway for temperature-controlled cargo into GCC markets.
Hapag-Lloyd	All Hormuz transits suspended; Gulf booking restrictions remain in place; Gemini network has improved resilience at higher cost.	War Risk Surcharge of 1,200/TEU to above 3,000/40ft; emergency bunker and contingency surcharges; Emergency Fuel Surcharge from April.	Among the most motivated carriers to enforce surcharges and manage capacity actively in H2 2026.
COSCO Shipping	Maintained the most active Gulf transit posture among major carriers, aided by China’s diplomatic positioning.	Emergency fuel surcharges applied; overall surcharge posture less aggressive than Western peers on Gulf routes	Has a structural advantage on China–Gulf routes during the disruption, though capacity and operational risk remain significant.
ONE	Suspended new bookings to and from the Persian Gulf from early March; no broad reopening confirmed.	War Risk Surcharge of 1,200/TEU; emergency fuel surcharges from April.	May remain competitive on non-Gulf lanes and appears to be balancing exposure with pricing.
ZIM	Heightened exposure as an Israeli-flagged carrier; Gulf operations suspended.	War-risk and fuel surcharges in line with the market.	Strategic position remains in transition, with elevated regional risk and acquisition-related uncertainty.

What This Means for Cold Chain Operators

• The reefer premium is real and persistent. CMA CGM’s 4,000/reefer ECS is the clearest signal of the cold chain-specific cost environment. 
• CMA CGM is effectively the only major Western carrier with active cold chain routing into the GCC. Its multimodal solutions via Sohar and Salalah are the primary channel for frozen and chilled cargo reaching the Gulf overland. 
• Carrier financial stress is a rate escalation signal, not a de-escalation signal. Hapag-Lloyd’s Q1 loss and Maersk’s warning about H2 demand destruction both point to continued surcharge pressure. 
• DHL’s guidance of 4–6 months to normalisation is the clearest forwarder-level projection currently available and is consistent with the broader maritime update. 

 

For additional information, contact Shane Brennan, Senior Vice President, Global Policy, Projects & Partnerships: sbrennan@gcca.org  

Sources 

Freightos/FBX Weekly Updates (March 4, April 14, May 5, May 12, 2026); Drewry World Container Index (May 14, 2026); Maersk Q1 2026 earnings / CNBC (May 7, 2026); WWD/Sourcing Journal on Maersk costs (May 2026); Hapag-Lloyd Q1 2026 earnings / gCaptain (May 2026); IndexBox on Hapag-Lloyd Q1 (May 2026); Quartr Hapag-Lloyd Q1 summary (May 2026); Tradlinx analysis of Hapag-Lloyd results (April 2026); The Loadstar on carrier war-risk surcharges (April 2026); The Loadstar on MSC End of Voyage (March 2026); The National on CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd surcharges (March 2, 2026); Carra Globe Hormuz tracker (May 8, 2026); Automotive Logistics Media on COSCO and carrier responses (March 2026); WWD/Sourcing Journal on CMA CGM Kribi transit (April 2026); CMA CGM surcharge advisory (March 2, 2026); Lloyd’s List Market Insight.